The Open 2026 Predictions: Royal Birkdale Odds, Irish Hopes and Best Bets

Royal Birkdale hosts the 154th Open, its 11th time staging the championship. The Southport links last crowned a champion in 2017, when Jordan Spieth held off Matt Kuchar. Padraig Harrington won here in 2008. Here are the essentials before you place a bet.

Scottie Scheffler heads the market as he chases back-to-back Claret Jugs. Rory McIlroy is the clear second favourite. The prices below are best available across major bookmakers as of 24 June 2026 and will shorten as the event nears, so always confirm the live price before betting.

Compare these against the live board on our golf odds page before you commit, since each-way terms differ between firms.

This is where Irish punters earn their weekend. Rory McIlroy at 7/1 is the obvious anchor. He finished tied seventh at Portrush in 2025 and tied fourth the last time the Open visited Birkdale in 2017, and his low ball flight holds up when the wind comes off the Irish Sea.

Shane Lowry at 33/1 is the value play for the heart. The 2019 champion at Portrush thrives in heavy weather, and a forecast with teeth would shorten him fast. Tom McKibbin, the young Antrim man now on LIV, is a 100/1 outsider whose power suits the par fives. Padraig Harrington, a sentimental 250/1, won here in 2008 and knows every dune. For the wider field and each-way maths, our weekly golf betting tips track who is rounding into form.

Royal Birkdale is one of the fairer Open venues. The fairways sit in valleys between the dunes, so a well struck drive tends to gather into play rather than kick into trouble. That rewards iron play and patience over raw luck off the tee.

Wind is the variable that decides everything on this coast. Players who flight the ball down and control spin gain a real edge when the gusts arrive. The greens run true, which helps a confident putter, and the pot bunkers are severe enough that avoiding them is half the battle. So the profile that wins here is a complete ball-striker with sharp approach numbers and a calm head, not just a bomber. For the broader strategy, see our golf betting guide.

Here is where we land, with the reasoning and the risk on each.

Outright: Rory McIlroy (7/1). The course fits his eye, the form is there, and home support at Birkdale lifts him. The risk is the same as always, a stray driver and a hot middle round he cannot quite finish.

Each-way: Shane Lowry (33/1). Five places at a quarter the odds turns a Lowry top five into a tidy return. He needs wind to bring the field back, and a calm week blunts his edge.

Dark horse: Tommy Fleetwood (16/1). A Southport native chasing a first major on home links is a story the market knows, but the price still holds if you fancy the narrative. The risk is the major monkey on his back.

Stake small on the outright, lean your bankroll toward the each-way, and shop prices between firms. Odds quoted are from 24 June 2026 and will move. 18+. Bet responsibly. GambleAware.