US Open 2026 Predictions: Odds, Irish Hopes and Best Bets

The 126th US Open starts on Thursday at Shinnecock Hills, and the Irish interest is genuine. Rory McIlroy arrives as a 12/1 second favourite chasing a second US Open title, with Shane Lowry, Pádraig Harrington, Séamus Power and Tom McKibbin all in the field. Here is how the card looks, who the course suits, and where we think the value sits.

US Open 2026: the essentials

Shinnecock hosts the US Open for a sixth time. It is one of the hardest tests in the game. Across the five previous US Opens played here, only three players have ever finished a championship under par, so par is a good score and patience pays.

The favourites

Scottie Scheffler is the clear, lone favourite. Rory McIlroy heads the chasing pack. The outright prices below are from FanDuel as reported by CBS Sports on 16 to 17 June 2026 and will have shifted by the time you read this.

For a fuller market and to compare prices across books, see our golf odds page.

The Irish challenge

Rory McIlroy (12/1). McIlroy completed the career Grand Slam at the 2025 Masters and arrives in strong form. He won this championship back in 2011 at Congressional. The question at Shinnecock is the same one that follows him at every US Open, whether the driver stays in play on a course that punishes a miss. Class and motivation say back him. We prefer him each-way rather than to win outright.

Shane Lowry. The 2019 Open champion is one of the best wind players in the field, and an exposed links-style test in a sea breeze suits him. The caveat is a quiet 2026 without a win, so this is a place play on the each-way market rather than a confident outright call.

Pádraig Harrington. Three major titles and still competitive this week, in the field on exemption. A realistic line is making the cut and enjoying the odd charge rather than genuine contention over 72 holes.

Séamus Power. The Waterford man can climb a leaderboard when his irons are sharp. Form has not been at its peak, so keep stakes small if you fancy a sentimental flutter.

Tom McKibbin. Now playing on LIV Golf with Legion XIII, the young Northern Irishman earned his major exemptions with a big 2025 on the Asian Tour. He has the length, but he is unproven at this level, so treat any bet as a small outright dart.

How Shinnecock Hills shapes the bet

Shinnecock is a par-70 links-style course with few trees, thick fescue rough, and fast, canted greens guarded by false fronts. It rewards driving accuracy and precise iron play far more than raw distance. Bombers do not get the usual edge here, because finding the short grass off the tee and controlling the ball into firm greens matters more. Lag putting and patience separate the contenders. That profile points toward accurate ball-strikers who keep big numbers off the card.

Our picks

Headline pick: Scottie Scheffler, 11/2. His accuracy and iron play are exactly what this course asks for. The risk is the short price and a slightly quieter run by his own high standards, but he is favourite for good reason.

Each-way value: Rory McIlroy, 12/1. The class is obvious and the motivation never higher. The caveat is the driving-accuracy demand and a long history of US Open near-misses, so the each-way terms protect you if he contends without closing.

Course-fit pick: Matt Fitzpatrick, 20/1. He won the 2022 US Open at Brookline on a similarly precision-first test and ranks among the straightest drivers in the field. The risk is whether he makes enough birdies if scoring opens up.

Dark horse, Irish each-way: Shane Lowry. Links pedigree and wind tolerance fit Shinnecock well. The caveat is a flat 2026, so take the place terms rather than backing him to win. For more selections through the season, see our golf betting tips.

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